Short answer：Property cycles have no precise clock. One month’s transactions or a rate change cannot establish a bottom. Review prices, rents, supply, vacancy and financing together with their observation periods.
Understand what the series measures
Price and rent indices, registered transactions and new-home records differ in coverage and timing. Registration may follow negotiation, and average prices can shift with the mix of properties sold.
Use scenarios instead of one forecast
Test flat, falling and rising prices against the same purchase or holding plan. This guide does not present a current full-market quantitative model and therefore does not assign today a definitive cycle stage.
Before deciding
- Keep release dates and observation months
- Review several periods rather than one change
- Base action on your own capacity to bear risk
Sources and method
Sources support the specific rules described. Checklists and hypothetical calculations are editorial explanations, not measured market results or individual approvals.
Revision：Removed unsupported experience, case outcomes and statistics; corrected the topic-specific rules and limitations described above.
Scope：General information only, not personalised legal, tax, immigration, admissions or investment advice.